Market Update: December 2023

It’s no secret. Kerikeri and the Far North are on track to experience one of the lowest volumes of open market real estate sales in a calendar year for 20 years. Average timeframes to sell have quadrupled since the peak of 2021 and unless you are the top one or two value propositions in your price bracket, you are going to have to sit it out and wait longer until the buyer who just loves what you have on offer comes along.  

It’s no wonder some vendors are losing patience and asking where are the buyers? The quiet period after the Global Financial Crisis from 2008 to 2010 saw similarly low numbers but that was when the town was much smaller, accentuating the poor results of this last year. So, what’s behind the slow down? 

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1. Normal cyclical correction to the extraordinary hype of activity in 2020 to 2022. 

The Covid bubble drove property sales activity and prices in Kerikeri to unsustainable levels. There had to be a correction, not just here but right across the country. Kerikeri median prices have held up well, so far, dropping around 10%, compared to other markets where prices dropped 20 to 25%. This makes Kerikeri’s prices more expensive for people planning to move from other areas and could give them reason to pause their plans or look at other attractive provincial towns, until the gap closes again. We are hearing about prices rising in Auckland and Wellington so the gap is already starting to close.

2. Section sales are way down to their lowest levels on record. 

The appetite for building new homes dropped away because of escalating land costs, construction costs, compliance costs and challenges with the supply of materials. All this uncertainty means that people have favoured staying where they are and renovating or buying an existing home versus building.

3. The rise of the retirement village. 

Over the last four years there has been a significant rise in retirement village house package offerings at reduced prices to the open market on a license to occupy basis. There is no doubt that people choosing these packages over open market homes has resulted in lower sales volumes in the open market. However, we understand that even retirement village sales are significantly slower in 2023 than previous years.

4. Fewer people moving to Kerikeri. 

People often say to us they move to Kerikeri for the warmer climate, the accessibility to Auckland and the lifestyle offered with boating in the Bay of Islands and access to Far North beaches. Unusual, severe weather patterns and road closures have put a damper on all of these over the last year. The normal flow of people travelling to the north to visit or in search of a new home has been disrupted. Boats have sat in safe harbour for most of the year and the weather has left many of us wondering if we should be renamed the summer-less north. For those worried about catching up with the grandkids in the city, this recent spate of weather has presented hurdles they were not anticipating. 

Additionally, slower growth in the construction sector has meant that fewer “tradies” have moved into the area than during the construction boom of the last few years. Last, but not least, most people need to sell elsewhere before they move here. If sales are slower where they live, then the result is things slow down for us here. That’s the market in a small provincial town when you rely heavily on inward migration for growth. 

Typically, these trends are temporary. Once our feeder markets pick up, roads are open permanently again and weather patterns settle back down people adapt and life gets back to normal.

The recent change of government offers a glimpse of hope as policies come into play that favour the property market across New Zealand.  However, it takes time for these policies to be implemented and have an effect. The first positive signal of change is the number of new listings across the country rising by an extraordinary 20% over the last month. People who had put their plans on hold leading into the election are finally acting. It is simple maths, that the more properties on the market, the more people will move around, and some of them will start to look at moving here again. 

Vendors can try various strategies to sell more quickly in the current market such as increasing their exposure through higher marketing budgets, or lowering their prices to be more competitive, or spending more money on their properties to make them more attractive or even changing their agency. All of these come at some additional cost, and none are guaranteed to bring a better result unless you are prepared to give your property away. The fact is that buyers are not coming as fast as they were. This is the nature of a cyclical market folks and neither you nor any agent, no matter how clever or experienced they are, can greatly influence that. 

The truth is, it is the time to be patient, trust your agent to be doing their job, out there everyday promoting your property. The market is turning, the buyers are returning, your property will be sold. 

It’s just a matter of time. 

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